The doubters have a perfect record. All losses.

Some memorable losses

1825Doubters at The RailwayLost

The Quarterly Review: "What can be more palpably absurd than the prospect held out of locomotives travelling twice as fast as stage-coaches?"

twice as fast as a stagecoach is now called traffic

An early fixture.

1878Doubters at The TelephoneLost

A remark attributed to William Preece, of the British Post Office: "The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys."

you have made a phone call

Oct 9, 1903Doubters at Kitty HawkLost

The New York Times calculates that a flying machine might take "one million to ten million years" of engineering effort.

the Wright brothers flew 69 days later

The editorial appeared on October 9. The flight was December 17.

1933Doubters at The AtomLost

Ernest Rutherford declares that anyone looking for power in the atom is "talking moonshine."

the moonshine now runs whole countries

1962Doubters at LiverpoolLost

Decca Records rejects the Beatles. A line later attributed to that decision: "Guitar groups are on the way out."

the guitar groups did not get the memo

1977Doubters at The Home ComputerLost

Ken Olsen is quoted saying, "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home." He later said he meant a computer running the household, not a personal computer.

A less tidy result than the quote collections suggest.

1995Doubters at The InternetLost

Newsweek prints "Why the Web Won't Be Nirvana": no online database will replace the daily newspaper.

you are reading this on the nirvana in question

1998Doubters at The Internet, AgainLost

An economist who would later win the Nobel Prize: "By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's."

the fax machine sends its regards

2007Doubters at The Phone, AgainLost

"There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share." Said on camera, by a CEO, smiling.

there is a fair chance you are holding one

A familiar move

“It’s been done before.” “Nobody’s ever done that.” Either way, apparently, you should stop.

Useful criticism gives you something to check. Ask what would fail, and what evidence would change their mind.

A confident no, on its own, doesn’t tell you much.

Your turn

“Be realistic.”

0 doubts generated. Nothing built.

Before you take the score seriously

These are selected misses, not a census of predictions. Plenty of doubts turn out to be justified. Being dismissed is no guarantee that your idea is good.

The railway passage comes from the Quarterly Review in March 1825. The Times editorial appeared on October 9, 1903. Rutherford’s “moonshine” remark dates to 1933. Stoll’s Newsweek essay appeared in February 1995; Krugman’s fax-machine prediction in Red Herring in June 1998. Ballmer’s iPhone remarks were recorded on video in 2007.

The Preece and Decca lines are often retold, and their exact wording needs care. Olsen disputed the meaning attached to his remark. Those qualifications belong next to the quotes, not buried behind the score.

The supposed prediction of a world market for five computers is left out. Its attribution to Thomas Watson is doubtful.